The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has warned that Bangladesh’s GDP growth may slow in the current fiscal year (2025–26) due to sluggish exports and industrial activity, compounded by the impact of retaliatory tariffs imposed by the United States.

In its July edition of the Asian Development Outlook, ADB said the growth forecast has been revised downward, although it did not specify a figure.

The publication, released recently, does not provide country-specific forecasts but instead offers regional-level projections along with analyses of economic trends across several major economies.

In its previous outlook published in April, ADB had projected Bangladesh’s GDP growth for FY2025–26 at 5.1%.

In April, the US administration announced a 37% retaliatory tariff on Bangladeshi goods, later revised to 35%, set to take effect from 1 August.

The government is currently in talks with Washington over the issue. If implemented, the tariff will increase the cost of exporting products—especially ready-made garments—to the US market. Exporters fear this may significantly hurt shipments and, in turn, the overall economy.

On inflation, the ADB report noted a slight decline in the outgoing fiscal year, attributing it to stable global commodity prices and tighter fiscal and monetary policies. For the same reasons, the inflation outlook for FY2026 has been kept unchanged.

In its April forecast, ADB had projected average inflation in Bangladesh to ease to 8% in FY2025–26.