Export earnings rebound with 19pc growth in October

Bangladesh’s export sector is showing signs of steady recovery, overcoming disruptions caused by the political turmoil in July and August that led to the ouster of the Awami League government.

According to data from the National Board of Revenue (NBR), export earnings in October surged by approximately 19 percent compared to the same period last year.

Goods worth $15.88 billion were exported in the first four months of the current 2024-25 fiscal year, marking an increase of about 11 percent compared to the same period in the previous fiscal year.

In October alone, Bangladesh exported goods valued at $4.13 billion—$650 million or 18.68 percent more than the corresponding month last year.

During July, August and September, the country’s export earnings stood at $3.82 billion, $4.07 billion and $3.86 billion respectively.

Bangladesh Bank data indicates that export earnings for the first three months of the current fiscal year amounted to $11.66 billion, a 7.62 percent increase from last year’s $10.83 billion.

Export earnings during the July-August period were $7.85 billion.

Knitwear exports during the July-September period amounted to $5.35 billion, an 8.25 percent increase from the $4.94 billion recorded in the same period last year. Woven garment exports rose by 7.33 percent to $4.16 billion compared to $3.88 billion in the previous year.

Exporters attributed the recent rebound to delayed shipments of orders that had been stuck due to labour unrest, the quota reform movement, and student uprisings during July-September.

Many of these pending orders were shipped last month, several exporters said.

They added that the seasonal demand for winter and Christmas-related products also contributed to the rise in exports, which increased in both value and quantity.

A senior official of the Newage Group confirmed that their factories are operating at full capacity.

“We are booked until June 2025, and hopefully other factories are performing similarly,” he said, emphasising that securing work orders depends on reputation, quality, and compliance standards.

An official document suggests that Bangladesh may witness further growth in export volumes, driven by shifts in global trade dynamics.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) forecasts that despite a contraction in global trade in 2023, merchandise trade volumes are expected to grow by 2.6 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025.

The recovery is expected as inflation subsides, encouraging consumers to purchase more goods.

Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) are projected to experience faster export growth than advanced economies.

The Eurozone, which suffered a significant contraction in 2023, is predicted to recover gradually with export growth of approximately 3 percent from 2025 onwards.

Bangladesh’s export growth, which slowed from 8.79 percent in 2023 to an estimated 3.93 percent in 2024, is expected to rebound, reaching 8.83 percent by 2027.

China’s export growth is forecast to remain moderate, ranging between 1.8 percent in 2025 and 2.85 percent in 2026, while India’s exports are projected to recover strongly from a contraction of -2.76 percent in 2023 to approximately 4 percent in 2025.

In contrast, the UK is expected to see subdued export growth, with contractions in 2023 and 2024, followed by modest growth rates below 2 percent until 2027.

Meanwhile, the US is projected to maintain a stable export growth rate of around 3 percent throughout 2024-27

As exports recover, Bangladesh’s imports are also expected to rebound in the medium term.

According to the IMF, Bangladesh’s import volume growth is projected to recover sharply from a contraction in 2023 to moderate growth of 4.1 percent in 2024 and robust growth of approximately 18 percent in 2025.

However, country-specific dynamics reveal varied trajectories. For instance, China’s import growth is expected to decline to 3.4 percent in 2024 and 0.9 percent in 2025.

Meanwhile, India’s import growth is forecast to accelerate from 4.8 percent in 2024 to 6.6 percent in 2025 and beyond.Import growth in advanced economies such as the UK and the US is expected to remain low, with the UK even projected to experience negative growth in 2025.