BNP leads voter preferences, Awami League outpaces student party: Survey

A nationwide survey of 10,696 voters reveals that traditional political loyalties remain strong, with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) emerging as the frontrunner among those who disclosed their voting preferences.

The survey, titled “People’s Election Pulse: Feb-March 2025,” was conducted by Innovision Consulting.

Among the 65% of respondents who revealed their choice for the next general election, 42% support the BNP, while Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami garners 32% backing.

In contrast, the Awami League trails with just 14% overall support.

While traditional voter bases continue to support established parties, fresh political voices are beginning to emerge among younger demographics.

Notably, the Awami League, one of Bangladesh’s oldest and most dominant parties, has managed to edge out the newly established student-led political party, particularly among Gen Z voters.

The student-led party lagged significantly behind with just 5% overall.

Within the Gen Z cohort, the Awami League received 11% support, narrowly outpacing the student-led party’s 10% share.

Once a dominant force, the Awami League’s credibility eroded over years of alleged election manipulation, political repression and corruption.

The tipping point came in 2024 when a mass uprising, sparked by the killing of students, led to widespread protests against the government.

The student-led movement gained momentum, culminating in the ouster of Sheikh Hasina’s government.

This movement, driven by demands for transparency, accountability and democratic reforms, has since transformed into a formidable political force.

The student-led party’s rise reflects a growing disillusionment with traditional political structures and a desire for change among the electorate.

The BNP enjoys overwhelming support among older voters, with nearly 47% of Gen X and Boomers II respondents favoring the party.

In contrast, the Jamaat-e-Islami’s base is relatively stronger among the Post War generation (35%) and surprisingly holds 34% support among Gen Z voters, suggesting that while the party has a traditionalist image, it also resonates with younger voters.

Both BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami exhibit marginally higher acceptance among rural voters—BNP at 42% rural versus 40% urban and Jamaat-e-Islami at 32% rural versus 30% urban.

This rural loyalty underscores the parties’ effective grassroots mobilization strategies.

BNP support remains consistent across genders (42% among men and 41% among women).

Conversely, Jamaat-e-Islami’s appeal is slightly stronger among male voters (33%) compared to female voters (30%).

These survey results highlight the entrenched support for traditional parties in Bangladesh.

The BNP’s edge among older and rural voters, combined with Jamaat-e-Islami’s surprising hold among both the youngest and the oldest demographics, signals that any shift in voter sentiment will hinge on how well emerging political forces can challenge these established networks.

With candidate performance taking center stage in voter decision-making, the next election campaign will likely be a test of each party’s ability to showcase credible, performance-based leadership.

After reviewing extensive survey data and comparable trends in recent political reporting, it is clear that while the Awami League retains a loyal, if shrinking, base among older voters, the emerging student-led party is slowly gaining traction among youth.