India-Bangladesh Relations under Scrutiny with Trump Back in Power

The recent meeting between Donald Trump and Narendra Modi has renewed attention on Bangladesh-India relations, highlighting the shifting geopolitical landscape in South Asia.

While the meeting focused on broader U.S.-India strategic cooperation, its implications extend beyond bilateral ties and have reignited discussions on India’s approach to its smaller neighbours, particularly Bangladesh.

The evolving dynamics between New Delhi and Dhaka have been significantly influenced by recent political upheavals, border tensions and economic considerations, all of which have been exacerbated by India’s changing domestic and foreign policy priorities.

The political landscape in Bangladesh has undergone a dramatic transformation following the ousting of Sheikh Hasina, who had long been a key ally of India. Her departure marked a significant setback for New Delhi, which had supported her administration despite allegations of corruption and authoritarianism.

The new interim government, led by Nobel laureate and economist Mohammad Yunus, has signalled a shift in Bangladesh’s approach to its relationship with India.

Unlike Hasina, Yunus has called for a ‘reset’ in bilateral relations, raising concerns for New Delhi about the potential weakening of its influence in Dhaka.

The Trump-Modi meeting adds another layer to this already complex situation, underscoring India’s broader geopolitical ambitions and efforts to strengthen ties with the United States.

India’s growing partnership with the U.S. places it in a stronger strategic position but also necessitates a recalibration of its relationships with neighbouring countries. As India continues to assert itself as a regional power, its relations with Bangladesh will be closely watched.

The new political realities in Dhaka require a more nuanced and diplomatic approach from New Delhi, which moves beyond historical alliances and considers Bangladesh’s changing priorities.

The evolving dynamics of Bangladesh-India relations reflect the broader shifts in South Asian geopolitics, where historical alliances are being re-examined in light of new political and strategic realities.

The meeting serves as a reminder that while global power alignments continue to evolve, regional relationships remain crucial in shaping a country’s foreign policy. For India, balancing its growing global stature with maintaining strong and stable relations with its immediate neighbours will be essential in ensuring long-term regional stability.

In this context, recalibrating its approach towards Bangladesh will be a strategic necessity and a test of India’s ability to manage complex diplomatic challenges in an increasingly multipolar world.

The removal of Hasina in August altered the political landscape significantly. Once backed by India despite allegations of corruption and authoritarianism, she fled to India after facing mass protests and charges of crimes against humanity.

The Bangladesh government now demands her extradition, citing human rights abuses during her tenure. Anti-India sentiment has grown, fuelled by accusations of mishandling water-sharing and alleged interference in Bangladesh’s internal affairs.

Analysts in Dhaka attribute the deteriorating security situation to the inexperience of the caretaker regime while accusing Indian media of sensationalising events for political purposes. Right-wing outlets in India have been criticised for exaggerating reports of anti-Hindu violence, undermining the fragile interim government.

From India’s perspective, its actions along the border and water-sharing disputes are rooted in national security and economic concerns. The ruling BJP government has prioritised border security to curb illegal migration and smuggling. Additionally, India’s hydropower projects are part of its broader energy strategy to reduce reliance on fossil fuels. However, Bangladesh sees these actions reflect India’s disregard for sovereignty and welfare. The lack of transparency and consultation on critical issues has declined trust.

As Bangladesh navigates a period of political transition, it must adopt a firm and proactive diplomatic stance to safeguard its national interests. This includes pursuing equitable water-sharing agreements through international legal frameworks and leveraging diplomatic channels to resolve border disputes. Diversifying foreign relations to reduce dependence on India could also give Bangladesh greater negotiation leverage. Furthermore, the interim government must prioritise transparency and inclusivity in its foreign policy decisions to build public trust. It must ensure that no unfair treaty, agreement or situation is imposed on Bangladesh.

The Trump-Modi meeting underscores India’s broader geopolitical ambitions, yet its regional stability depends on fostering cooperative relationships with neighbours like Bangladesh. India must adopt a more inclusive and transparent approach to address issues such as water-sharing, border security and political interference. Likewise, Bangladesh must assert its interests while maintaining diplomatic equilibrium.

By prioritising dialogue and equitable agreements, both nations can navigate this critical juncture and work towards a resilient and stable South Asian partnership.

India-Bangladesh relations are at a crossroads. Bangladesh must assert its interests while maintaining diplomatic equilibrium and India must recognise the value of a stable and cooperative neighbour. By fostering transparency, engaging in dialogue and prioritising equitable agreements, both nations can move beyond current tensions and build a resilient partnership for regional stability and prosperity.
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The writer is a political and international affairs analyst