Uncertainty looms over mega projects

Although Bangladesh's ongoing financial hardship has slowed down the implementation of various development projects, the mega projects have so far remained unaffected.

However, the ouster of the Sheikh Hasina-led government following a mass uprising by students and people has thrown the future of these large-scale projects into uncertainty.

During the Awami League government's last 15-year tenure, mega projects were prioritised as symbols of visible development, despite repeated advice from economists to scale them back.

The government continued to allocate substantial resources to these initiatives.

With the recent power shift, analysts say that the fate of many mega projects would depend heavily on the policies of the interim government.

The Hasina-led government dedicated 6.52% of its total budget of Tk7,97,000 crore to 10 mega projects of various sectors, including education, power, transport, and infrastructure development in the current fiscal year 2024-25.

A total of Tk51,975.47 crore, approximately 20% of the Tk265,000 crore allocated for the Annual Development Programme (ADP) for FY25, has been earmarked for these projects, according to planning commission sources.

Topping the list is the Fourth Primary Education Development Programme, set to receive Tk11,055.97 crore, followed by the construction of the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, with an allocation of Tk10,502.9 crore.

Besides, the Matarbari 2x600MW Ultra Super Critical Coal Fired Power Plant Project has been allocated Tk6,005.45 crore.

Other major projects, including Metrorail Line-6, Metrorail Line-1, Metrorail Line-5, and the Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Rail Bridge, have also received significant funding and foreign loans.

However, the broader ADP implementation faced significant delays due to the financial crisis. In the last fiscal year (2023-24), ADP implementation reached only about 80%, marking the lowest level in history. The current year's ADP includes 1,321 sanctioned projects, comprising 1,133 investment projects, 87 technical assistance projects, and 21 survey projects.

Officials of the Planning Commission believe that the interim government may decide to scrap many of these projects, especially those with political motives or those approved through lobbying efforts.

Projects under Tk50 crore are particularly vulnerable to discontinuation.

Zahid Hussain, a former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, emphasised the need for the interim government to carefully evaluate ongoing projects.

"We need to review the entire ADP. Projects that are unnecessary should be eliminated, while less important projects can continue even if not taken up now. But important projects must be prioritised," he said.

Dr Mohammad Emdad Ullah Mian, a member (secretary) of the Physical Infrastructure Division under the Planning Commission, stated that project approval and fund allocation would be determined by the current economic situation.

He mentioned that a meeting with the planning and finance adviser of the interim government would be held to discuss mega projects and other initiatives.

"Our activities will continue in accordance with the policies of this government," he said, adding that the overall situation would be presented during the upcoming meeting with Planning Commission officials.

When asked whether any projects might be excluded, Dr Mian said that no decisions can be made at this time. "We will follow the advisor's guidance," he added.

Dr Mian also noted that if proposals are made to reform damaged projects like the metro rail and expressway, those would be prioritised. However, such reforms may be funded from the ministry's existing allocations, and in that case, no new project proposals may be necessary.

He emphasised that projects capable of contributing to the economy in a short period of time will receive greater priority. In the future, decisions may be made to avoid approving projects that do not provide immediate benefits to infrastructure development.