ESCAP sees BD's positive trade growth in 2019

FT ONLINE

Despite sluggish merchandise exports from Bangladesh in the outgoing year 2019, a United Nations (UN) body forecasts positive annual export growth for the country.

The UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) made the projections in its latest Asia-Pacific Trade in Goods Trends and Outlooks.

According to the ESCAP, exports from Bangladesh would rise by 9.10 percent in value and 6.30 percent in volume in 2019.

The outlook, released on Wednesday, also cited that goods imports to Bangladesh would increase by 5.80 percent in value and 6.10 percent in volume.

The ESCAP said only Vietnam would register higher growth in trade than Bangladesh.

The exports of Vietnam are anticipated to rise by 7.70 percent and import by 9.40 percent in volume.

The projected growth rates are, however, calculated on the basis of the 2010 constant prices.

The ESCAP report laid emphasis on the volume of trade rather than on the value and price though it mentioned all the three parameters.

Citing the shrinkage of the Asia-Pacific trade, it said trade is declining in both value and volume in the region for the first time since the 2009 global economic crisis.

The total export volume fell by 2.5 percent and import by 3.5 percent, the report revealed.

"In addition, an overall lower price level pushed trade value down further to record 3.60 percent and 4.80 percent contractions of exports and imports," it said.

In 2018 and 2019, the ESCAP said, trade performance in Asia and the Pacific followed the global trend, slowing down from the second half of 2018 onwards.

"As a result, the region maintained its global share in trade at 37.0 percent and 35.0 percent of total exports and imports respectively," it added.

The ESCAP outlook further said that in the outgoing year, China's exports dropped by 1.30 percent and imports by 4.70 percent in real terms.

"As a result, substantial adverse spill-over effects have spread through the region," it observed.

"However, nations such as Bangladesh, India and Vietnam challenged this trend, registering 4.0 percent to 8.0 percent export volume gains."

According to the Export Promotion Bureau statistics, exports of goods stood at $38.81 billion during the January-November period of 2019.

It was $35.82 billion in the same period last year.

Exports faced negative growth in the second half of 2019. Merchandise exports from July to November fell by 7.60 percent over the same period of 2018.

Goods exports during the January-June period of this year increased by 6.85 percent compared with the corresponding period of last year.

Meanwhile, the central bank statistics has shown a negative trend in merchandise imports so far.

During the January-October period of 2019, merchandise imports declined by 2.41 percent to $49.44 billion from $50.67 billion during the same period of 2018.