Japan business mood hits 4-year high

Big Japanese manufacturers' business sentiment hit a four-year high in the three months to December, a closely watched survey showed on Monday, reinforcing market expectations the central bank will raise interest rates this week.

But firms expect conditions to worsen three months ahead as they fret over the impact of higher US tariffs and soft consumption, highlighting uncertainty over how far the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could eventually push up borrowing costs.

The headline index measuring big manufacturers' business confidence stood at +15 in December, the BOJ's "tankan" survey showed, up from +14 in September and matching a median market forecast.

The reading, which marked the third straight quarter of improvement, was the highest since December 2021 in a sign firms were weathering the hit from higher US tariffs for now.

An index gauging big non-manufacturers' sentiment stood at +34 in December, unchanged from September and roughly in line with market forecasts for a reading of +35.

"All in all, the tankan backs up dominant market views the BOJ will raise rates in December. Unless a huge shock hits the economy or markets, it is likely to proceed with a hike," said Masato Koike, senior economist at Sompo Institute Plus.

Big firms expect to increase capital expenditure by 12.6% in the current fiscal year ending in March 2026, the tankan showed, compared with a median market forecast for a 12% rise.

Sources have told Reuters the BOJ is likely to raise its short-term policy rate to 0.75% from 0.5% at its December 18-19 meeting on receding fears President Donald Trump's tariffs will severely hurt the export-reliant economy.

Big firms saw sales prices as having risen in the fourth quarter and expect prices to keep increasing in the coming three months, the tankan showed, a sign solid demand was enabling them to pass on higher costs to consumers.

Underscoring uncertainty over the outlook, however, the tankan showed companies projecting business conditions to worsen three months ahead.

While fading uncertainty over US trade policy helped brighten the business mood, many firms worried that labour shortages and the hit to consumption from higher prices clouded the outlook, a BOJ official told a briefing.

An index measuring job conditions showed firms saw the job market at its tightest since 1991 when Japan was experiencing an asset-inflated bubble, suggesting labour shortages could curb growth in an economy facing a dwindling working-age population.

Still, analysts view the tightening job market as working in favour of steady wage gains, a key prerequisite the central bank has set to continue raising interest rates.

"With firms reporting acute labour shortages, the Board can rest assured that the virtuous cycle between higher wages and higher prices will remain intact," said Abhijit Surya, senior APAC economist at Capital Economics, predicting the BOJ to push its policy rate up to 1.75% in 2027.

Japan's economy shrank in the third quarter as exports fell in the face of US tariffs. But analysts expect growth to rebound in the current quarter, as exports and factory output show signs of recovery.

With inflation exceeding its 2% target for well over three years, a growing number of BOJ board members have signaled their readiness to vote for a rate hike to avoid being behind the curve in addressing the risk of too-high inflation.

Companies expect inflation to hit 2.4% one, three and five years ahead, the tankan showed, suggesting corporate inflation expectations are becoming anchored around the BOJ's 2% target.