Wait for deadlier month!

Health experts have said the country should get prepared to witness further rise in the number of Covid-19 infections and deaths for at least another month.

They said conducting more tests, improving the healthcare system and mobilising the community to check the spread of virus and minimise the rate of fatality have become essential as Bangladesh is unlikely to enforce strict lockdown or control public movement.

The experts doubted the success of the government's efforts to impose cluster lockdown in different areas of Dhaka and elsewhere in the country depending on the severity of infections.

Bangladesh on Monday confirmed 42 more deaths, which is the highest single-day toll, from the novel coronavirus for two consecutive days and 2,735 new cases of infections testing 12,944 samples in the last 24 hours ending at 8 am Monday, according to a daily health bulletin issued by the DGHS.

With this, the death toll from the deadly virus rose to 930 and the number of total infections stood at 68,504.

Bangladesh on March 8 confirmed the first COVID-19 patient and the first death on March 18.

Adjunct Professor at the Institute of Health Economics of Dhaka University Dr Muhammad Abdus Sabur argued Bangladesh will not be able to impose strict lockdown or curfew anymore.

Dr Sabur predicted around 50 deaths and 3,000 infections per day, on an average, will continue for one more month..

This is will be the peak of infections as per the experiences in other countries then the number of infections may start to go down, he said.

This is a conservative estimate, this estimation may prove wrong in the end and there might be huge loss of lives and livelihoods due to the pandemic as the world knows little about the virus, he said.

He said there will be a collapse of healthcare and social order in case of more intense level of virus spread.

BSMMU associate professor (respiratory medicine) Dr. Shamim Ahmed, a member of the committee that deals with the hotline affairs, echoed Mr Sabur's fears, saying lockdown, mobility control didn't work much and will not work.

He said the government needs to conduct more tests and mobilise community services to check spread of the virus.

He believed complete lockdown is not compatible with Bangladesh's socio economic conditions.

He said what Bangladesh is doing is a cocktail of lockdown, quarantine, tests and treatment.

Mr Ahmed said the government is now testing everyday 12000- 13000 of suspects, it will stop at around 20,000 as per the capacity of labs.

He expressed the hope that the infections may peak by then.

He suggested conducting more antibody tests to find who are already infected and have developed antibody and send them to work.

Meanwhile, additional director general (Administration) of the Directorate General of Health Services, (DGHS), Prof Nasima Sultana, said the rate of fatalities now stands at 1.36 per cent.

Of the deceased -- 33 men and nine women -- 25 were from Dhaka division, eight from Chittagong division, two each from Khulna, Barisal, and Mymensingh, and one each from Rajshahi, Sylhet, and Rangpur divisions, she said.

Deaths from the coronavirus infection crossed the 900 mark in Bangladesh on Monday, having recorded the first fatality on March 18. The country crossed the 100 mark in deaths on April 20.

Prof Sultana said as many as 13,961 samples were collected in the past 24 hours.

The deaths and infections from the novel coronavirus infections increased manifold in recent weeks in Bangladesh.

On Sunday, 42 people died from the highly infectious disease and 2,743 were found positive for the novel coronavirus infection.

In the 13th week that ended Saturday last, 236 deaths and 18,418 infections were recorded, while it was 12,530 infections and 158 deaths in the 12th week, 11,083 infections and 138 deaths in the 11th week and 7,225 infections and 100 deaths in the 10th week.

The infections started spiraling from the 10th week after the government eased the lockdown by opening markets, shopping malls, factories and places pf worship.

In the ninth week, the number of infections was 4,980 following 29 deaths, and 3,792 infections following 35 deaths in the eighth week. The novel coronavirus infections and deaths are feared to climb in the coming days as the government on May 31 lifted restrictions on the public movement, resumed public transports services, businesses and offices.

However, East Razabazar area of Dhaka will be listed in red zone from Tuesday night to contain the spread of coronavirus.

"We have been taking preparations for the lockdown, which would be enforced from tomorrow midnight as per the directive of the authorities concerned," local ward commissioner Faridur Rahman Khan Iran told FT.

The government has started enforcing containment zones on a pilot basis in some areas of four districts, including Dhaka.

The aim is to stem the spread of the virus by putting all those infected in isolation centres and conducting contact tracing effectively, said officials. In the first phase, two areas of the capital -- Razabazar and Wari -- were placed in the "red zone" with severe restrictions as the city remains to be the worst hit.

Some urban areas of Narayanganj, Gazipur and Narsingdi would also be put under strict lockdown, said the officials, adding that these districts are the most-affected after Dhaka.