NBR misses revenue target by Tk94,000cr amid economic, political turmoil

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) fell significantly short of its revenue collection target in the just-concluded fiscal year 2024–25, underscoring the mounting economic and administrative challenges faced by the government.

Against a revised revenue target of Tk4.63 lakh crore, actual collection stood at approximately Tk3.70 lakh crore—marking a shortfall of around Tk94,000 crore, according to a number of senior NBR officials. The original target had been set even higher, at Tk4.80 lakh crore.

“As of 29 June, we collected Tk3.61 lakh crore. We estimate the final figure will reach Tk3.70 lakh crore. It will take a week to finalise the data,” a senior official of the NBR told the Daily Sun on Wednesday.

Political unrest, bureaucratic protests blamed

Explaining the significant shortfall, the official cited a slowdown in economic activity amid the political upheaval and civil unrest following the July uprising and subsequent protest movements.

Compounding the problem, NBR officials themselves staged protest and shutdown programmes at the end of the fiscal year, disrupting operations further.

The official also pointed to reduced implementation of the Annual Development Programme (ADP) as a contributing factor.

According to the planning ministry data, only 49% of the ADP was implemented in the first 11 months (July–May) of FY25, marking the lowest ADP execution rate in over 15 years.

Modest growth, yet below expectations

NBR Chairman Md Abdur Rahman Khan on Monday confirmed that over Tk3.6 lakh crore had been collected as of 29 June.

He expressed cautious optimism that the final figure would show a slight increase from the previous year (FY24), with revenue growth for FY25 expected to be slightly over 2%.

“There will be an increase in revenue collection compared to FY24. It will take another 2–3 weeks to get the final figure, but we’re confident about year-on-year growth,” the NBR chairman said.

However, he acknowledged the recent disruptions due to protests had negatively impacted collections in the final days of the fiscal year.

NBR officials had originally projected revenue collection at Tk3.80 lakh crore.

Previous and future targets

The FY25 revenue collection marks the weakest revenue performance in decades, excluding fiscal year 2019–20 when the economy contracted due to the COVID-19 pandemic—an exceptional instance of degrowth in Bangladesh’s economic history.

Looking ahead, the government is planning an ambitious revenue target of Tk5.64 lakh crore for FY26, expecting around 4.25% growth over FY25. Of this, Tk4.99 lakh crore is to be mobilised by the NBR, with the remainder coming from non-tax and non-NBR sources.

Meanwhile, the original revenue target was Tk5.41 lakh crore for FY25, Tk5 lakh crore for FY24, and Tk4.33 lakh crore for FY23.

Of the FY26 target, Tk4.99 lakh crore is likely to be set for the NBR, while the rest will come as non-tax and non-NBR revenues.

With the FY25 collection target missed by a wide margin, the NBR will now face the challenge of achieving a nearly 35% year-on-year growth in FY26 to meet the new target.